Recently, Russian political scientist and journalist Sergei Marzhetsky wrote a lengthy article with two proposals for the use of weapons on the Russian-Ukrainian front:
1. to convert MiG-21 fighters into drones.
2. to buy FC-1 (Fighter China-1) fighters to counter the F-16s that Ukraine will soon be equipped with.
As you can see, Sergei has great confidence in the potential of the MiG-21, an outdated but inexpensive light single-engine fighter, to be used in the next modern conflict.
But are these two proposals reliable? How feasible are they?
Sergei’s vision is that the MiG-21 fighter converted to a drone should be no less capable than the Turkish TB2 and more capable than the MotoGP stream, as the MiG-21 was designed to take on a range of missions, including air combat and ground attack.
Therefore, if the MiG-21 fighter is converted into a drone, it can be converted into a detection and attack drone dropping bombs and launching various missiles, it can be converted into a long range reconnaissance drone, or it can just be fitted with a combat section in its fuselage to turn it into a giant roving bomb.
That’s the theory, but how many MiG-21s does Russia have?
Odds are that many Russians, and netizens around the world, will speculate:
Since Russia has been able to pull T-62M and even T-54/55 tanks out of combat up to now, there should be quite a few MiG-21 fighters readily available, right?
T-62M tanks refurbished and re-duty, this is the Russian army before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has practiced the subject.
But it’s hard to say the same for the MiG-21.
When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Russia simply did not inherit any active MiG-21 fighters.
This may well be surprising to many, but it is true.
Long before the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Soviet Defense Air Force fully retired the MiG-21.
The Soviet Air Force still had 185 MiG-21s at the time, but they were largely in Central Asia.
After the collapse of the USSR, Kazakhstan inherited most of them, plus Tajikistan inherited 21 and Azerbaijan had 5.
Of course it’s clear from the contents of the 1995 agreement for Russia to swap Tu-95 bombers back from Kazakhstan that Russia should still have some sealed decommissioned MiG-21s – at the time, Russia was willing to swap MiG-21s, Su-25s, and Su-27s for a total of 73 aircraft for the Tu-95s.
So, even if Russia does still have some decommissioned MiG-21s sealed up, what is the condition of these fighters that have been in storage for 30+ years?
Would it be cost-effective in terms of cost and man-hours to pull them out, repair them, refurbish them, and retrofit them with modern electronics to be used as drones for different purposes?
This is obviously a Russian secret that is not accessible to the general public.
Moreover, the same Sergei admitted that he was inspired by reading online about China converting retired J-6s into drones.
But it can be deduced from some of the images online that China’s drones converted from older fighters are a longstanding work in progress and that the planes are regularly overhauled, and are not this kind of slap-in-the-face idea.
Second question:
Sergei thinks he can buy FC-1 fighters to counter the F-16.
This Sergei feels that the FC-1 fighter is just a light fighter with the engine changed to an RD-93 and upgraded with the participation of Russian experts, so Russia might be able to give it a different type designation for production in Russia as well and put it into the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
It seems that the Russians’ knowledge of the FC-1 fighter is not very comprehensive, simply very incomplete.
The FC-1 fighter was indeed developed with this mindset in mind:
The rear fuselage of the J-7 was barely modified, the front half was replaced with a more advanced design, advanced avionics were installed, better missiles could be fired, and you got an advanced fighter.
But the development process was a series of twists and turns, through a series of changes such as the U.S. pulling out and Russia joining in to assist.
The design requirements went from conforming to the level of military science and technology of the 1980s to conforming to the level of military science and technology of the 21st century.
The FC-1’s aerodynamic profile bears little resemblance to that of the J-7, which was modeled after the MiG-21.
Its avionics and mounted missiles are also a huge improvement over the J-7.
Not to mention the fact that Russia can’t afford to buy FC-1 fighters under the current situation, and China and Pakistan won’t sell them either by combining various factors.
Even if Russia can get a production license, then ask:
FC-1 is designed to launch all kinds of Chinese missiles, American bombs and laser guided bombs, there is no design to mount all kinds of Russian missiles and bombs at all. How is Russia going to solve this?
The FC-1BLOCK3 is equipped with all kinds of Chinese developed and produced electronic equipment, especially the KLJ-7A active phased array radar.
Russia’s own Su-35 is still using a passive phased array radar with relatively outdated technology, so if Russia buys a production license, how can it produce FC-1 fighters on its own, please?
Moreover, Russia’s idea is to produce an upgraded version of the MiG-21, preferably not much change in the airframe, but advanced electronic equipment, so that it can mount a variety of advanced missiles, with an advantageous number of existing Su-30SM and Su-35 to form a high and low collocation, through the “combination punch” to gain a certain advantage on the battlefield.
China actually also has this kind of aircraft, that is – FTC-2000G, first appeared in the name of FTC-2000 trainer aircraft, the PLA used the model is FTC-2000.
The rear fuselage of the FTC-2000G is basically the design of the J-7 fighter, and still uses the turbojet-13, an engine that is somewhat related to that of the MiG-21, and these may feel more familiar to the Russians.
Moreover, the FTC-2000G adopts more advanced designs such as DSI intakes and trapezoidal small sidebar wings, and the nose is redesigned to allow the installation of newer electronic equipment.
Needless to say, the FTC-2000G, while remaining relatively inexpensive, offers a nice performance boost compared to the likes of the MiG-21 and J-7, and is suitable for some countries with limited military spending, and some do buy them.
But can the FTC-2000 or FTC-2000G match the performance of the JL-10 (Hongdu JL-10 )?
The JL-10 is at a similar level of performance to the Russian Yak-130 trainer, can the Yak-130 match the performance of the F-16?
Therefore, this MiG-21 magic transformation to battle F-16 fighters is more or less whimsical.
Not to mention, Russia is a vast country, Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe, Russia and Ukraine front line spread thousands of kilometers, whether FC-1 or FTC-2000G, in such a vast area of combat, more or less a little out of reach.
Of course, Russian netizens count on Su-75 to hurry up mass production and then batch equipment to the Russian army to form the performance advantage seems to be unrealistic, the development of this aircraft progress there, and can not even find a third country to jointly develop, how can quickly equip the Russian army?